Sahel region remains ‘epicenter of global terrorism’, expanding terror threat across Africa and beyond

Africa’s Sahel region has become the global epicenter of terrorism, with extremist groups now responsible for over half of all terror-related deaths worldwide in 2024, according to the latest Global Terrorism Index (GTI).
This marks a significant shift from previous years, as the region’s death toll rose to 3,885, accounting for 51% of the global total. The increase in violence represents a nearly tenfold surge since 2019, with the Sahel now more deadly than the Middle East, traditionally home to some of the world’s most intense terrorist activity. The region is home to two major jihadist groups: the Islamic State’s Sahel affiliate (IS-Sahel) and al-Qaeda’s Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). These groups, often targeting military and government forces, aim to establish Islamist states by exploiting local security and governance gaps. “The insurgencies directly threaten the survival of Sahelian countries — Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — and the stability of coastal West Africa,” a new analysis by the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute warns.
Thee insurgency tactics implemented by the IS-Sahel and JNIM jihadist groups threaten not only regional stability but also the broader international security landscape, with the potential for expanded attacks outside the Sahel. In addition to the mounting violence, extremist cells linked to the IS-Sahel group have been detected in North Africa, signaling a dangerous regional expansion. Morocco recently dismantled a 12-member terrorist cell aligned with IS-Sahel, further illustrating the increasing reach of these groups. This “imminent dangerous terrorist plot” highlights Morocco as remaining “a major target in the agenda of all terrorist organizations operating in the Sahel,” said Habboub Cherkaoui, the head of Morocco’s Central Bureau of Judicial Investigations. With the Sahel governments’ shifting alliances towards Russia and China, the region faces a precarious future as extremist groups continue to exploit fragile states.