Geopolitics of Niger coup: France, EU and ECOWAS are big losers
The coup in Niger has drawn strong condemnation from much of the international community, but most notably the United States and France, which have troops stationed there, as Niger’s putschists on Monday accused the former colonial ruler, France, of wanting to “intervene militarily” to reinstate the country’s deposed president.
West African leaders on Sunday (30 July) threatened military action against the junta that last week captured democratically-elected President Mohamed Bazoum, as thousands of Nigeriens, many carrying Russian flags and chanting pro-Putin messages, took to the streets in support of the coup and later stormed the French embassy in capital city Niamey. The coup leaders also claimed Monday that Niger’s toppled government had authorized France to carry out strikes at the presidency to try to free Bazoum. Responding to the allegations, Paris said it was focused on guaranteeing the security of its nationals, thus echoing President Emmanuel Macron who earlier vowed “immediate” action if French citizens or interests were attacked in Niger.
With anti-French sentiment running high in some former African colonies, and with Russian and Chinese influence growing, the continent has become a renewed diplomatic battleground. Anti-French sentiment has formed the backdrop for governmental overthrows in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso within the last two years, forcing the withdrawal of French troops. Pro-Russian sentiment has meanwhile grown, and Wagner Group mercenaries have established presences in Mali, the CAR, Libya and other troubled states. If successful, the latest coup would make Niger the fourth ECOWAS country currently under military rule, according to François Conradie, lead political economist at Oxford Economics Africa.
“This is a nightmare for the regional body and its civilian leaders,” says Conradie who adds that since the putschists will likely call on the French troops to withdraw from Niger, then “there will be negative consequences for French business, including mining – which may have implications for French energy security, given its reliance on Nigerien uranium for nuclear power generation.” Beyond France, the coup will also have negative implications for the EU since Niger is a major global uranium producer and accounts for around 25% of such deliveries to the bloc. Experts also warn that the coup in Niger is likely to heighten concerns about the displacement of communities in the Sahel region and wider security challenges.
