Morocco’s statistics agency draws scenarios for confinement easing

Morocco’s high commission for planning (HCP) published a study warning of the impact of a general confinement easing on the number of deaths and infections that could overwhelm the health system in 62 days.

A general confinement easing entailing protective measures with all people under 65 years who are not suffering from chronic health conditions (27 million people) allowed to move would cause a surge in infection reproduction rate (RO) to 1.24 leading to the contamination of 8% of the Moroccan population in 100 days.

This would lead to overwhelming hospitals in 62 days, which will be only able to offer care to 10% of the infected population, the HCP said in the study.

Without protective measures, at least 50% of Moroccans will contract the virus with the reproduction rate hitting 2.6.

However, a controlled lockdown easing allowing the active population aged below 65 years without underlying health conditions would result in the contamination of 13% of Morocco’s population with a lower RO however of 0.86.

This scenario predicts 18.720 cases and 748 deaths in 100 days with the health system hitting its limit in 75 days, the HCP said, noting that these scenarios are meant to help decision makers take informed decisions based on statistics methodology.

The statistics agency therefore stresses that citizens’ strict respect of protective measures and social distancing is required to contain the virus.