Prominent Spanish economist Santiago Niño Becerra has predicted that Spain will one day leave the North African enclaves of Ceuta (Sebta) and Melilla, arguing that Madrid should begin preparing for that eventuality now.
In a series of posts on X (formerly Twitter), reported by the Spanish daily La Razón over the weekend, the professor of economic structure at Ramon Llull University in Barcelona said the current Spanish debate is framed incorrectly.
The real question, he wrote, is not whether Morocco will seize the two cities or how Spain should defend them, but “when Spain will leave Ceuta and Melilla.”
Niño Becerra argued that Spain’s continued presence no longer depends solely on Madrid’s decisions.
He linked his forecast to Morocco’s evolving strategic role in U.S. plans, stating that the Kingdom now occupies “a very different position from the one it held in the past.”
In the geopolitical context of 2026, he said, neither Spanish intentions nor the costs Madrid is willing to bear will determine the outcome.
The economist cited historical precedents to support his view. Sidi Ifni, once a Spanish province, was returned to Morocco in 1969. The Sahara, which held the same administrative status, was evacuated in 1975.
Since independence in 1956, he noted, Morocco has pursued the completion of its territorial integrity, regarding Ceuta and Melilla as the last remnants of European colonial presence on its soil.