South Sudan’s Fragile Peace: Rising tensions between forces of Kiir and Machar

Tensions have intensified in South Sudan since the beginning of 2025, with a marked increase in confrontations between the South Sudanese Army, loyal to President Salva Kiir, and forces aligned with Vice President Riek Machar. The latest friction points have emerged in the Western Equatoria region, where the two factions are locked in a bitter standoff, despite their official commitment to upholding the peace agreement that has been in place since 2018.

Disagreements over recent military actions have highlighted deepening divides between the two camps. The South Sudanese military claims to have faced opposition from Machar’s forces while dismantling checkpoints as part of an agreement made during the Governors’ Forum late in 2024. On the other hand, the opposition forces accuse Kiir’s army of violating the ceasefire by attacking and taking control of one of their cantonment bases, an act which, if verified, would be a breach of the ongoing ceasefire. Colonel Lam Paul Gabriel, a spokesperson for the opposition, stated that while peace remains the ultimate goal, the South Sudanese army’s actions have crossed a dangerous line.

In the northeast region of Upper Nile, further skirmishes have added to the rising tensions. Violent clashes broke out between the South Sudanese army and ethnic militias, often linked to the opposition, in Nasir. The escalation of violence has prompted the United Nations and civil society groups to urgently call for a return to peace and a more rigorous implementation of the peace agreement, as the risk of widespread conflict looms larger than ever before.