Somali piracy resurgence alongside Houthi militant attacks raises security concerns — Stratfor

The current resurgence in piracy off the Somali coast, will likely put additional pressure on the already strained global shipping industry and increase the militarization of the western Indian Ocean, which could in turn further escalate geopolitical tensions between India and China, says a latest analysis by Stratfor.

Though such piracy’s impact will likely be limited compared to its late 2000s peak due to stronger multinational counter-piracy structures, the resurgence in Somali piracy remains a source of concern as no less than 14 piracy incidents have been reported off the Horn of Africa between November 2023 and January 2024.

According to the analysis published by Stratfor, a US strategic intelligence publishing company, the resurgence in piracy off Somalia’s coast appears opportunistically motivated by Houthi attacks in the southern Red Sea, but also by local drivers such as resentment of illegal foreign fishing and an apparent partnership between pirates and jihadist group al-Shabaab, whereby the latter reportedly receives up to 30% of the pirates’ ransom proceeds.

While Houthi attacks on commercial vessels have largely relied on drones, and to a lesser extent on long-range missiles, attacks by Somali pirates mostly involve hijacking attempts using fishing vessels and light weapons, the analysis says. Leading counter-piracy efforts are the European Union’s Operation Atalanta as well as the multinational Combined Maritime Forces’ Combined Task Force 151, whereby EU officials have recently confirmed that additional vessels would be deployed to the Horn of Africa by mid-February to curb the recent surge in attacks.

In addition to China and India that also have a significant presence in the region, Turkey is likely to expand its naval deployments following its conclusion of a recent bilateral defense agreement with Somalia.