Algeria’s gas export volumes down 10% in 2022 compared to 2021

The Algerian government has indulged in telling half-truths by focusing on value of gas exports instead of the volume which has dropped 10% to 49.3 billion cubic meters in 2022, down more than 5 bcm from 2021.

The drop confirms forecasts that Algeria- which already lost its status as an oil country- will lack capacity to export gas in next decade due to a surging domestic consumption on the back of high demographic growth and over reliance on gas for electricity production.

Half Algeria’s 100 cbm production went to the domestic market in 2022, a year which saw exports value soar to 50 billion dollars.

But even with higher prices in 2022, Algeria fell short of matching its 71 billion dollars of gas exports in 2011 when the country produced 145 cbm.

The dire truth that Algerian officials seek to hide is that the country’s production capacity is decreasing while its domestic needs of gas are increasing while dependence on hydrocarbons keeps the economy hostage.

The gas bonanza has given the Algerian military regime a chance to buy time and delay painful- though necessary- reforms as they opened the tap to buy social peace through maintaining a generous subsidies policy coupled with cash handouts to the disenchanted youth.

Meanwhile, inflation has hit double digits with unemployment soaring to 15% according to official figures.

Algerian authorities have also announced expectations of 17 billion dollars of trade surplus this year, a figure they sell as an achievement to a population that has been hit by shortages due to import bans.

That same trade surplus figure is barely enough to cover the cost of subsidies of foodstuff, housing and other cash distribution measures taken by a regime intent on buying social peace at the expense of prospects for economic diversification.

It is worth mentioning that Algeria is one of the few countries on earth whose GDP per capita has declined in recent years in tandem with the decline in energy prices.

The artificial reforms launched by President Tebboune failed to make Algeria attractive to foreign investors as the country remains closed under the rule of an opaque military regime whose members have a vested interest in the authoritarian and rentier economy status quo.

Lucky international media who have had access to the country recently speak of disenchantment and despair embodied in the rise of illegal arrivals at sea to Spain from Algerian coasts by youth seeking better prospects.