Optimism in Morocco, nightmare in Algeria following Trump’s victory

Trump’s victory has been met with mixed reactions in North Africa, wherein Moroccans see it as a chance to push forward with the commitments made by Washington in 2020 regarding the Sahara issue, while the Algerian regime braces for more diplomatic blows.

Morocco

In 2020, Morocco resumed diplomatic ties with Israel and Washington recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara territory under a trilateral agreement.

The three countries signed a joint declaration providing for closer economic ties and a US consulate in Dakhla.

”To facilitate progress toward this aim, the United States will encourage economic and social development with Morocco, including in the Western Sahara territory, and to that end will open a consulate in the Western Sahara territory, in Dakhla, to promote economic and business opportunities for the region,” reads the Joint Declaration.

The Biden Administration has put the implementation of the Joint Declaration on hold although it maintained recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara territory. The return of Trump is expected to complete the deal and help Morocco build on Washington’s support in the UN to advance towards a political solution based on the autonomy plan, building on increasing support from influential countries such as France, Spain, Israel, Arab Monarchies and much of Africa.

Algeria

For all the above-mentioned reasons, the re-election of Trump has unsettled the octogenarian men in uniform ruling in Algeria behind a thin civilian curtain.

With the support of the region’s colonial powers, France and Spain, for the autonomy plan in the Sahara under Morocco’s full sovereignty, Algiers fears Trump re-election will step up pressure on them to break away with their anachronism and force their proxies to accept the autonomy as the sole solution to this regional dispute.

Isolated Algeria has been forsaken by its arms supplier Russia against the backdrop of disagreements over regional issues, it has tense ties with all neighbors except Tunisia. It has also worsened its ties with the GCC countries as well as with France and Spain.

Algeria’s diplomatic setbacks are all due to its obstinacy in defending the Polisario, whose separatist cause is handled by the Algerian leadership as a national cause.

The return of Trump is also auguring ill for Algerian finances. Trump will promote shale gas exports putting additional supply in the global market, which will lead to lower prices.

The specter of lower prices because of increased US exports is a catastrophic scenario for gas-dependent Algeria, amid decreasing export capacity on the back of higher domestic consumption.