Morocco expects $10 Bln in remittances & $8.4 Bln in travel earnings in 2022

Remittances by Moroccan expatriates are expected to increase by 12.9 pc to $10 billion in 2022 before dropping by 4pc to $9.6 billion in 2023 due to the deterioration of economic conditions in the host countries, according to the forecasts of Morocco’ Central bank.

As for travel receipts, they are projected to end the year with a record growth to $8.4 billion after $3.2 billion in 2021 and would stabilize in 2023, then improve by 5.5% to $8.9 billion in 2024.

Exports are expected to improve by 32.3pc, driven mainly by sales of phosphate and derivatives, thanks to higher prices, and those of the automotive sector. Their growth would decelerate to 2.7 pc in 2023, with decreases expected for phosphate and derivatives and agricultural and agri-food products, before a quasi-stagnation in 2024.

At the same time, imports are expected to be up 38.4pc in 2022, covering mainly a 102.1pc rise in the energy bill to $14.5 billion, an increase in purchases of semi-finished products and a rebound of nearly 90% to $2.5 billion in wheat supplies. They should fall by 3% in 2023, with decreases of 13% in the energy bill and 41.2% decrease in wheat supplies, then rise by 1.1% 2024.

As to foreign direct investments (FDI), revenues are forecasted to be approximately equivalent to 3 pc of GDP this year and 3.2 pc of GDP annually over the next two years.

Under these circumstances, Morocco’s current account deficit would widen from 2.3 pc of GDP in 2021 to 3.3 pc in 2022 before narrowing to 2.1 pc in 2023 and 1.9 pc in 2024.